HedgeMath

How to hedge a bonus bet, step by step

Published 2026-09-30 · Updated 2026-09-30

Place the bonus bet on one side of a market at one sportsbook, then bet cash on the other side at a different sportsbook, sized so both outcomes return the same amount. What you end up with is the bonus bet's calculated result at the prices shown, and it's always less than face value, because a bonus bet never returns its stake.

Why a bonus bet isn't worth its face value

A cash bet that wins pays your stake back plus the winnings. A bonus bet that wins pays only the winnings. The stake disappears either way.

So a $100 bonus bet at +210 returns $210 if it wins, compared with $310 for the same cash bet. That missing stake is why the calculated result of a hedged bonus bet always lands below face value.

The idea behind the hedge

A bonus bet on its own either pays out or disappears. Hedging turns it into a single number: you put the bonus bet on outcome A at one sportsbook and bet cash on outcome B, the opposite side, at another. One of them wins. If the cash bet is sized correctly, you end up with the same amount whichever side wins.

Step by step

1. Check the bonus bet's rules

Before anything else, confirm three things in your sportsbook account:

2. Pick a market with exactly two outcomes

Moneylines in sports without draws, and spreads or totals on the same line at both books, work cleanly. Avoid markets where a push or a third outcome, like a draw, is possible unless you account for it.

3. Put the bonus bet on a longer price, up to a point

Because the stake isn't returned, bonus bets convert better at plus-money odds. With a standard -110 / -110 margin on the hedge, a bonus bet at +100 calculates to about 45.2% of face value, and one at +300 to about 60.7%.

Past a point, the margin you pay on a growing hedge outweighs the gain (see bonus bet conversion rates). Shopping the hedge across books lowers that margin: from Sep 23 to Sep 30, 2026, the best hedges HedgeMath found for $100 bonus bets came at bonus odds of about +380 to +490 (we searched +100 to +500).

4. Find the best price on the other side, at a different book

The better the hedge price, the higher your calculated result. This is where comparing sportsbooks matters most. Hedging at the same book usually isn't allowed with promo funds, and you'd pay that book's margin on both sides anyway.

5. Size the hedge

Using decimal odds, where B is the bonus bet amount, d1 the decimal odds on the bonus bet's side and d2 the decimal odds on the hedge side:

Hedge stake          H = B × (d1 − 1) ÷ d2
Calculated result      = B × (d1 − 1) × (1 − 1 ÷ d2)
Conversion             = (d1 − 1) × (1 − 1 ÷ d2)

Worked example: a $403 bonus bet at +210, hedged at -220.

6. Place both bets quickly

Odds move. Place the hedge right after the bonus bet, or first if the hedge side is the one more likely to move, and check that both bet slips show the prices you calculated with.

7. Record both bets

Tracking every bonus bet you convert shows your real average conversion rate over time. That number is what your future promos are worth to you.

Common mistakes

Try it yourself
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How much to bet on the other side, and what share of the bonus becomes cash.

Frequently asked questions

What is a good conversion rate for a bonus bet?

It depends on the odds and the hedge price available. From Sep 23 to Sep 30, 2026, across the 8 sportsbooks HedgeMath tracks, the best available hedge for a $100 bonus bet (odds +100 to +500, hedge at most 5 times the bonus) converted between 68% and 74% of face value in the middle half of 258 observations. Much lower usually means the bonus bet went on too short a price or the hedge price was poor.

Does a hedged bonus bet always pay the calculated result?

Only if everything goes as priced. The hedge sets the calculated result at the prices shown when you place both bets. Odds can move before you place the second bet, lines can differ, and sportsbooks can void or settle bets under their own rules. Always confirm the price on the bet slip.

Do I need two sportsbooks?

Yes, in practice. The hedge has to be placed at a different sportsbook from the bonus bet.

Can I split one bonus bet across several bets?

It depends on the sportsbook. Some require the whole bonus bet on one wager. Check the terms in your account.

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